Posted on 24/01/2009 by johnr
From Magonia 15, April 1984
This article was originally presented as a
paper at the Anglo-French UFO Conference held in Brighton in February 1984
Over the past few years a growing number of French
ufologists have become increasingly doubtful about the existence of UFOs as a
genuinely original physical phenomenon. I should like to analyze briefly the
origins and limits of this doubt.
The first French ufologist to have said “the emperor has no
clothes” was Michel Monnerie, in two hotly debated books. He was until then a very classical ufologist,
and a member of the editorial board of Lumieres dans la Nuit, the leading UFO
magazine in France, from which post he was fired after publication of his
second book. Monnerie’s reasons for doubting can be summarized in two main
arguments:
1. The non-specificity of the residue of unexplained
cases – in other words the lack of distinction between explained and unexplained
cases: exactly the same patterns and the same characteristics appear in both
sets of cases. Indeed, cases with typical UFO effects have been explained:
electro-magnetic effects, landing traces, humanoids, effects on animals,
physiological effects, etc. I personally have investigated with friends a case
which involved two witnesses, a burnt trace in a field and a howling dog – it
was the rising moon: The unexplained cases have no unique peculiarities.
2. The continuity between the trivial and the
extraordinary: for any phenomenon it is possible to define a set of median, or
most probable characteristics (for size, colour, speed, etc.). But all these
parameters are distributed about the median, and sometimes the appearance of a
phenomenon is very far from the median, because of the inherent variability of
the phenomenon, because of had sighting conditions or misrepresentation by the
witness. It follows that the further the characteristics are from the median,
the less will people be able to recognize the true nature of the phenomenon.
For Monnerie, UFOs are situated at the ends of the distribution function, at
the ends of a bell-shaped curve. They are thus ‘fringe phenomena’ of a larger
set of phenomena, but their peripheral location is not perceived as such
because ufologists remove the more central part of the curve, where the less
strange phenomena are identified by the witnesses themselves or by the field
investigators. Ufologists, Monnnerie says, arbitrarily call the minor
misinterpretations ‘false UFOs’ and the major ones ‘true UFOs’, and do not realize
that there is a perfect continuity between the two series, and that the
difference between them is of degree not of nature.
But by what process does a well-balanced person (even skeptical
ufologists accept that psychological cases are rare) interpret an unrecognized
phenomenon as a high strangeness UFO? According to Monnerie, when there is a
lessening of attention or if the witness becomes anxious, he lives in a sort of
daydream. He distorts the observed phenomenon and transposes it through the
unconscious influence of a rumor or myth. One of the great myths of our time, Monnerie
says, is the extraterrestrial concept, because it is so well suited to our
scientific and technological civilization. But it must be emphasized that this
type of serious misinterpretation is not pathological, and can happen to
anyone. A physical support, a real object which is not identified, is always
necessary; it is not a perception without object, it is not a hallucination.
Monnerie’s hypothesis was not exactly welcomed by French
ufologists. But now, some years later, the situation has markedly changed. Why?
It happened that as time went by an increasing number of allegedly “hard” cases
– great “classics” of ufology – have been explained, not by skeptics, but by
ufologists themselves. Let’s quote some examples: the well-know Leroy, Kansas,
“calfnapping” case of 1897 has been explained by Jerome Clark as a hoax [2];
the famous photograph from Salem, Massachusetts, 1952 has been explained by
Hynek as a reflection of lights on a window [3]; the very complex case of San
Jose de Valderas, Spain, which involved two allegedly independent photographers
and an object left on the ground by the UFO has been explained by Claude Poher and
myself as a hoax [4].
There are serious doubts also about the renowned UFO
accident case at Ubatuba – it might be an accident indeed, but involving a
rocket launched by the Brazilian Army [5]. Almost all of the often quoted
sightings by American astronauts have received very mundane explanations, and
Hynek himself has admitted it [6]. The complex set of sightings in the north of
France on October 3rd, 1954 was in fact caused by the moon (in one of these
cases the moon allegedly landed, and later took off!) [7]. As a last example,
the intricate French case of Taize in 1972, which had the honour of being
published in FSR [8], has recently been explained by Bertrand Meheust as
powerful lights around a house on the other side of the valley.
Apart from facts like these, more theoretical studies also
reinforced sceptical attitudes. Several authors pointed out the many analogies
of UFO sighting details with the occupations, the psychology and the fields of
interest of the witnesses involved, or with traditional and classical symbols
(9]. Let us also mention Alvin Lawson’s experiments: imaginary abductions
induced by hypnosis gave the same details as the allegedly real abductions
aboard UFOs (10]; this Is a good example of non-specificity [11].
Above all there was, for French ufologists, Bertrand
Meheust’s book [12]. Meheust is not a sceptic, but the many similarities he
points out between science fiction and UFOs in fact support the
psycho-sociological hypothesis: almost all the UFO patterns were already
present in SF novels before the Second World War (shapes, behaviour, types of
entity, solid lights, physical effects, etc.). Why then search for an exotic
explanation, if human symbolism and inventiveness are quite sufficient?
Firstly, it goes without saying, but goes even better
for saying it, that the kind of doubt I am speaking about has absolutely
nothing in common with the attitude of the lifelong sceptics
But this new and pervasive form of scepticism has its
limits. Firstly, it goes without saying, but goes even better for saying it,
that the kind of doubt I am speaking about has absolutely nothing in common
with the attitude of the lifelong sceptics. The doubt of some French ufologists
is only based on a thorough analysis of the facts and not on prejudice. No-one
amongst these new French ufologists has any scientific or philosophical
prejudice against the possible existence of extraterrestrial visitors or paranormal
phenomena. I am certain that they are ready to reverse their attitudes if the
facts require it.
Secondly, I and most of my colleagues continue to believe
that there remains a small residue (although much tinier than we believed some
years ago) of unexplained sightings (or perhaps we have to say more cautiously
“not yet explained sightings”). But if explained and unexplained cases reveal
the same patterns, what distinguishes these residual cases? Well, essential
characteristics which are external to the phenomenon: number and quality of
witnesses, multiple independent witnesses, psychological circumstances that
exclude a hoax, or the absence of a suitable support for a
misinterpretation.Let’s recognise that the reasons why we consider such and such
a case as genuine are often difficult to make explicit: it is more a feeling
than clear-cut reasoning. This is not to say that it is pure belief, but it may
alas appear as belief to sceptics, for we have no real proof. Statistical
evidence, as presented by Jacques Vallee, James McCampbell, or Claude Poher, is
no longer valid, because many cases on which they are based have now been
explained, and we often lack sufficient information on the remaining ones [13].
As I wrote some years ago [14], our ufological quest is a
quest for the non-transmittable: although we may squire a personal conviction,
we cannot pass this conviction on to ‘good faith’ sceptics (or at least not to
many of them). All cases, even the ‘hardest’ ones, contain elements that
legitimate a doubt. For instance, the famous Boianai, New Guinea, sightings
appear at first glance to be very ‘hard’: many witnesses, object seen at short
distance for some time, with humanoids and many observable details. However,
Hynek had to concede that a doubt remained, because the position in the sky,
and the time of disappearance of the main UFO fitted the movement of Venus
[l5].
This continuing absence of really convincing proof (the
problem is the same in parapsychology) is too general in this kind of phenomena
to be merely bad luck. To me, it has only two possible explanations: either
there is no new physical phenomenon – this is the psycho-sociological
hypothesis described above – or we are faced with a phenomenon which
deliberately escapes proof, that is, a phenomenon characterised by what my
friend Bertrand Meheust called – in English in his French book! –
“elusiveness”.
To try and solve this dilemma, I think that one of the most
urgent tasks for ufologists is to attempt to determine whether the
non-specificity is really total. Are there patterns which would be unique to
the unexplained cases? Perhaps some details which do not appear in science
fiction may be unique, like some types of physical traces, or sudden
disappearances or the fusions and dislocations of UFOs. This is one of the main
reasons why French ufologists recently launched the ‘Concreting Operation’,
that consists of defining new and more severe credibility criteria for
selecting really solid cases. Indeed it appeared that cases which figured high
in the usual credibility scoring were nevertheless explainable.These new
criteria, which are presently being developed by a small group of French
researchers, fall into four categories: criteria concerning the phenomenon
characteristics, concerning the sighting conditions, concerning witnesses, and
concerning the field investigation.
More generally speaking, ufologists have now to think about
the following question: what methods would allow us, on the basis of UF0
sighting reports and without prejudice about the solution, to distinguish
phenomena relevant to behavioral sciences from phenomena relevant to physical
sciences, and to distinguish, in the two subsets, known from new phenomena?
In any case, there is no reason to despair. I see at least
two certainties in the present state of ufology:
1. Ufologists are unanimous, even the most skeptical, on
the fact that most UFO sightings have at their base a real physical stimulus
that was genuinely not recognized by the witness. Hoaxes and hallucinations are
rare.
2. In any event, UFO reports remain an unresolved problem
and testify to the existence of at least one unknown phenomenon. Indeed, even
if all the reports were triggered by the misperception of a known phenomenon
(this is the minimal hypothesis) the distortion of reality would be so great and
so frequent that this particular type of misperception would be in its own
right an important new phenomenon, which would deserve a thorough study. This
remains true even if there is a physically originated residue, because the
numerous serious misrepresentations have to be explained in any case.
Because of this second certainty, ufology would not
disappear if there were no new physical phenomenon. A psycho-sociological
phenomenon of misinterpreted and distorted perception may be less appealing
than an extraterrestrial or parapsychological one, but when it has the extent
and persistence of the UFO phenomenon, is nevertheless revolutionary from the
standpoint of present theories in the behavioral sciences. This, is clearly emphasized
by the near absence of thorough studies of UFOs in the human sciences
literature. Apart front Jung’s hook, there are practically no books, PhD theses
or scientific journal articles about sociological aspects of UFOs [16]. This
absence is quite strange in view of the rich study material UFO reports provide
for behavioral sciences. Some sociologists even manage to write whole books on
modern myths, of rumors in our society, without any allusion to UFOs! It is as
if UFOs were put, as Meheust puts it, into “semantic-brackets”.
The extent and persistence of the UFO phenomenon, is
revolutionary from the standpoint of present theories in the behavioral
sciences
I think that this profound reluctance stems from the central
dogma of the most influential school of thought in present day sociology,
namely that man is an essentially rational being, whose behavior is in most
cases entirely predictable. The UFO phenomenon is an ideal case to
point out the pervasiveness of myths, of irrational behavior, even in our
technological society (and to demonstrates the falseness of this dogma) because
it is new (so new we can study its origin and development), frequent and
perceptive (that is, based on a false perception, contrary to most myths and rumors
which are based only on false reasoning and which can he qualified as
cognitive). For these reasons it is also ideal for understanding the function
that myths fulfill in our society. This is really revolutionary, but perhaps
more in a political than a scientific sense, because both capitalist and Marxist
theories are based on the assumption that man is rational. Both give a
pre-eminent role to economic causes in human behavior, and economic reasons are
essentially rational.
Thus we ufologists are in any event revolutionaries!
However, let us not exaggerate our power: of course we cannot seriously shake
the rationalist or “economistic” dogma of our society, but we may and must be
watchers, collecting and preserving as much information as we can, in the hope
that sometime in the future mankind will be sufficiently adult to study these
data without any prejudice in either direction.
****************************************************************************
“The psychosocial hypothesis builds on the finding that most
ufo reports have mundane explanations like celestial objects, airplane lights,
balloons, and a host of other misperceived things seen in the sky which
suggests the presence of an unusual emotional climate which distorts
perceptions and the perceived significance and anomalousness of merely
terrestrial stimuli. In the more exotic situation where people claim
direct contact with extraterrestrials, the need for a psychosocial approach
seems obliged by the presence of at least 70 claims of people meeting Venusians
and at least 50 claims of meeting Martians; both worlds now known to be
uninhabitable and devoid of any advanced civilization. Hoaxing seems to explain
some of these contactees claims, but visionary dreams, hallucinations, and
other mental processes are clearly implicated in such myth-based material. By
generalization, the other material suggesting the presence of extraterrestrial
entities from elsewhere is hypothesized to be explainable by similar means. The
observed presence of surreal dream-like activity and imagery or themes based in
the cultural environment and historically understood sources reinforces the
proposition that the extraterrestrial hypothesis is unnecessary and, by Occam's
razor, probably incorrect.”
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