Friday, March 22, 2013

UFO, Induction and Deduction.

Inductive vs. deductive reasoning
Unlike deductive arguments, inductive reasoning allows for the possibility that the conclusion is false, even if all of the premises are true. Instead of being valid or invalid, inductive arguments are either strong or weak, which describes how probable it is that the conclusion is true.
A classical example of an incorrect inductive argument was presented by John Vickers:
All of the swans we have seen are white.
Therefore, all swans are white.
Now, let us see what we will call the UFO inductive reasoning:
Most of the so called Unidentified Flying Objects ( UFO) are identified as natural phenomena and /or human made artifacts.
Some of the UFO however, remain not identified, consequently these Unidentified Flying Objects are extraterrestrial vehicles.
As we can see this inductive argument allows the possibility that the conclusion is false. That is why Inductive reasoning is also known as hypothesis construction. The conclusion is unreliable so at most we can talk about a hypothetical conclusion, but not a factual one.
David Hume, the Scottish philosopher; described the problems of inductive reasoning in his  An Enquiry concerning Human Understanding,  based on his epistemological framework. Here, "reason" refers only to deductive reasoning and "induction" refers to inductive reasoning.

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