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by Jacques F. Vallee
Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 4, No. 1,
pp. 105- 17
1990
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Presented at the Eighth Annual Conference of the
Society for Scientific Exploration, Boulder, Colorado, June 1989.
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Abstract
Scientific opinion has generally followed public
opinion in the belief that unidentified flying objects either do not exist
(the "natural phenomena hypothesis") or, if they do, must represent
evidence of a visitation by some advanced race of space travelers (the extraterrestrial hypothesis or "ETH").
It is the view of the author that research on UFOs need
not be restricted to these two alternatives.
On the contrary, the accumulated data base exhibits
several patterns tending to indicate that UFOs are real, represent a
previously unrecognized phenomenon, and that the facts do not support the
common concept of "space visitors."
Five specific arguments articulated here contradict the
ETH:
unexplained close encounters are far more numerous than
required for any physical survey of the earth
the humanoid body structure of the alleged
"aliens" is not likely to have originated on another planet and is
not biologically adapted to space travel
the reported behavior in thousands of abduction reports
contradicts the hypothesis of genetic or scientific experimentation on humans
by an advanced race
the extension of the phenomenon throughout recorded
human history demonstrates that UFOs are not a contemporary phenomenon
the apparent ability of UFOs to manipulate space and
time suggests radically different and richer alternatives, three of which are
pro- in outline form as a conclusion to this paper.
Initial Hypotheses
Over the last 40 years we have observed the steady development of a group of
aerial phenomena generally referred to as Unidentified Flying Objects or
UFOs.
After a brief attempt to explain the reports in terms
of secret proto-types (the "Advanced Technology Hypothesis,") two
major explanations have captured the attention of the public, the media and
the scientists. These two theories are the natural phenomena hypothesis and
the extraterrestrial hypothesis, or "ETH."
A large majority of the scientific community, which is typically unaware of
the observational data except as reported in the press, continues to support
the natural phenomena hypothesis. It asserts that all the reports can be
explained as a combination of observing errors, classical atmospheric
phenomena and human-made objects, possibly combined with little-known
psychological illusions which are of no relevance to physics.
It concludes that no new knowledge is to be gained from
further specialized study of the observations by professional scientists,
perhaps with the exception of marginal improvements to the documentation of
some altered states of perception.
A majority of the public and the quasi-totality of the UFO researchers have
supported the ETH.
Under this hypothesis UFOs are physical devices
con-trolled by intelligent beings from another planet who have been visiting
the earth as part of a scientific survey begun at the time of World War very
much in the fashion we ourselves plan to follow in exploring remote planetary
environments. In their interpretation of the phenomenon, this survey includes
the reconnaissance of strategic sites, the gathering of mineral and plant
samples and sophisticated interaction with the human and animal life-forms
present on the planet.
The recent interest in reported abductions of witnesses has contributed what
many UFO researchers regard as convincing evidence that such
extra-terrestrial visitors are conducting a series of biological
interventions de-signed to collect samples of human tissue and body fluids
and are engaged in cross-breeding experiments for genetic purposes.
Challenges
The slow but steady accumulation of detailed reports and the continuing
research on old cases make it possible to test these hypotheses against an
increasingly documented data base.
The Natural Phenomena Hypothesis does not fare well under these tests.
Many reports are quite specific in terms of the physical and biological
parameters that can be derived from an analysis of the interaction between
the phenomenon and the environment.
A presentation by Velasco at the 1989 SSE Conference
has pointed out that no less than 38% of the cases studied by the French CNES (Centre
National Spatiales, the French equivalent of NASA) have failed to be
identified in terms of natural effects (Velasco, 1989).
The environmental interactions most often reported include abrasions, burns
and effects on plants, animals and humans. The work of Velasco and Bounias in Trans-en-Provence
(submitted for publication) is a case in point.
So is the recent research done in Brazil, which will be
part of a forthcoming report on field work conducted privately by the author
over the last 10 years (Vallee, in press; a summary of the Brazilian studies
was also presented at the July 1989 MUFON meeting in Las Vegas, Nevada). The
observed phenomena include radiation effects and have not been accounted for
by a combination of known physical and psychological causes.
At the same time, however, we find that the ETH, too, is increasingly
challenged by the new patterns researchers are uncovering.
Five major contradictions worthy of special
examination will be studied in this paper.
They have to do,
with the surprisingly high frequency of close
encounters
with the physiological description of the
"occupants"
with the contents of the abduction reports
with the historical extension of the phenomenon
with the physical behavior of the reported craft
We will discuss these five points in turn, then we will
propose new hypotheses attempting to take these objections into account.
Argument One - Close Encounter Frequency
Approximately 20 years ago, when the first catalogue of close encounter
reports was compiled (Vallee 1969), I was surprised to find that it reached
over 900 entries, well beyond the expectations of most researchers at the
time.
With the increased attention now placed on this
category of sightings the lists of unexplained close encounters have grown beyond this early catalogue.
Estimates place the size of the current sample between 3,000 and 10,000
cases, depending on the criteria that are used. We offer the figure of 5,000
as a conservative estimate.
This remarkably large number can and should be used as a challenge to the
natural phenomenon hypothesis:
If UFOs were simply a peculiar atmospheric effect, such
as a plasma discharge, most of the still-unidentified cases could be
accounted for by taking into consideration the corresponding patterns.
It should also be stressed that we are not concerned
here with the general appearance of UFOs in the sky but with close encounters
only, those dramatic episodes in which witnesses describe a phenomenon in
their immediate vicinity.
Yet the same argument can also be used against the ETH:
It is difficult to claim that space explorers would
need to land 5,000 times on the surface of a planet to analyze its soil, take
samples of the flora and fauna, and produce a complete map.
While the ETH could perhaps account for the 923 landing
reports in our 1969 compilation, the theory can no longer be supported today.
Neither is the figure of 5,000 a good estimate. Many indications converge to
show that only 1 case in 10 may actually get reported. Therefore, the number
of close encounters we need to explain is probably of the order of 50,000.
This does not take into account the fact that the overwhelming majority of
our sources are located in Europe, the American continent and Australia.
It is logical to assume that the phenomenon is
worldwide, and that we are missing the true magnitude of the problem at least
by a factor of two. This leads to a figure of 100,000 events.
If we remain faithful to a strict interpretation of the ETH, even this very
large figure still underestimates the real number of actual landings.
Shouldn't we assume that extraterrestrial explorers would land on our planet
without regard for the presence of human witnesses?
In fact Claude Poher and I found (using independent
databases) that the geographic distribution of close encounters does indicate
a pattern of avoidance of population centers, with a higher relative
incidence of landings in deserts and in areas without dwellings (Poher &
Vallee, 1975). If we follow this line of reasoning then it would be
conservative to multiply our number by a factor of 10 to account for the high
ratio of sparsely populated over densely populated lands.
This would place our estimate at million landings to be
explained. In other words, if human witnesses were equally distributed over
the surface of the land and if they reported every close encounter they
observed, the data universe should contain 1 million records.
This number still does not take into account another important pattern in the
phenomenon, namely its nocturnal character. First published in 1963 this
pattern shows no significant variation between older and more recent cases
and even yields the same distribution when a very homogenous sample of
previously unreported cases from a single region is analyzed (Poher &
Vallee, 1975).
Figure 1 below, shows the frequency of close encounters as a function of
local time of day for 3 different, non-overlapping samples compiled by the
author, namely (A) international catalogue of 362 cases prior to 1963, (B) an
inter-national catalogue comprising 375 cases for the period 1963-1970 and
(C) 100 cases from Spain and Portugal.
On these curves it can be seen that the number of close encounters is very
low during the daylight hours. It starts increasing about 5 pm and reaches a
maximum about 9 pm. It then decreases steadily until 1 am, then rises again
to a secondary peak about 3 am and returns to its low diurnal level by 6 am.
After these curves were published other researchers have conducted their own
studies which have led to similar results. In particular Merritt
working from UFOCAT files, found that electromagnetic effect cases, physical
trace reports and occupant reports had a major peak at 9 pm and a low daytime
average. The occupant reports showed a secondary peak about 3 am (Figure 2).
Researcher Randles (1981) conducted her own study of 223 cases from
the files of 2 British groups and found a very similar pattern of high
nocturnal activity with a major evening peak and a secondary predawn peak.
Abduction reports, however, showed a maximum about midnight (Figure 3).
Given such a stable pattern we are led to ask, what would the hourly
distribution look like if we had a constant number of potential witnesses, in
other words if people did not retire at night? The answer can be approximated
by taking the average distribution of outdoor population as a function of
time of day (Szalai, 1972) and computing a de-convolution against the
sighting report curve.
This operation yields an activity curve that rises
continuously throughout the night and peaks about 3 am.
Fig. 1.
Frequency of close encounter reports as a function
of time of day.
A = 362 cases prior to 1963, all countries
B = 375 cases between 1963 and 1970, all countries
C = 100 cases from Spain and Portugal only.
It also shows that the total number of actual events
should be 14 times the number of observed phenomena. This gives a total estimate
of 14 million landings in 40 years if we strictly adhere to the ETH.
The question to be answered is:
What objectives could extraterrestrial visitors to the
earth be pursuing, that would require them to land 14 million times on our
planet?
It should be kept in mind that the surface of the earth
is clearly visible from space, unlike Venus or other planetary bodies
shrouded in a dense atmosphere.
Furthermore, we have been broadcasting information on
all aspects of our various cultures in the form of radio for most of this
century and in the form of television for the last 30 years, so that most of
the parameters about our planet and our civilization can be readily acquired
by unobtrusive, remote technical means.
The collecting of physical samples would require
landing but it could also be accomplished unobtrusively with a few carefully
targeted missions of the type of our own Viking
experiments on Mars.
All these considerations appear to contradict the ETH.
Fig. 2.
Frequency of close encounter and EM effect cases as
a function of time of day
From "Modern Research by Jenny Randles, 1981,
UFO Study: A Handbook for Enthusiasts, p. 194, Figure 18.
Argument Two - Physiology
The vast majority of reported " Aliens" have a humanoid shape that is
characterized by two legs, two arms and a head supporting the same organs of
perception we have, in the same number and general appearance.
Their speech uses the same frequency range as ours and
their eyes are adapted to the same general segment of the electromagnetic
spectrum. This indicates a genetic formulation that does not appear to differ
from the human genome by more than a few percent.
Such an observation, if the entities were in fact the product of independent
evolution on another planetary body as stated by the ETH, would stretch our
understanding of biology. Humans share the unique combination of gravity,
solar radiation, atmospheric density and chemical composition known on earth
with an array of creatures closely related to us through evolution, yet
deprived of legs and arms like the dolphins or endowed with multiple eyes
like the spiders.
It should also be kept in mind that the human shape has evolved in response
to an extremely narrow set of constraints.
For example, it would not exist as it does today if the
earth had started out with twice its present mass, giving a surface gravity
of 1.38 times earth normal.
Fig. 3.
Frequency of close encounter cases, including abductions, as a function of time of day
From "Modern Research by Jenny Randles, 1981,
UFO Study: A Handbook for Enthusiasts, p. 20 1,
Figure 19
Such an environment would have forced the development
of a stronger skeleton and might have precluded bipeds altogether.
Similarly, a planet with half its present mass and a
surface gravity of 0.73 times what it is now would have radically affected
our shape.
As pointed out by Dole (1969) if the inclination
of the equator had been 60 degrees instead of 23.5 degrees, seasonal weather
changes would be intolerable to us:
life would have had great difficulty in getting started
and humans would have evolved in very different ways.
If the day was 100 hours long instead of 24 hours,
mankind as we know it could not have evolved or survived at all.
How, then, can we expect that extraterrestrial visitors from a completely
different planetary environment would not only resemble us but breathe our
air and walk normally on the earth?
Even if, by some unknown principle of exobiology, the Aliens did evolve
naturally into the humanoid shape, wouldn't they modify their bodies using
genetic engineering techniques to enhance their ability to work and survive
in space, as humans may have to do over the next century?
This last argument can be countered by assuming that our "Visitors"
have precisely been created through such genetic manipulation into a form
with which we can interact.
But if that is the case, why not produce human
specimens biologically indistinguishable from the earth's population?
The ETH fails to give a convincing answer on this
point. Even more intriguing is the observation that the reported display
recognizable human emotions such as puzzlement, interest or amusement (as in the Betty Hill case of 1961 or the Valensole case of
1965). This suggests not only biological similarity but extensive social
acculturation.
In summary, the physiology of the "Aliens" conforms to human
biology and culture to an extent that is not compatible with the ETH.
Argument Three - Abduction Reports
The growing number of abduction reports is being used by a vocal segment of the
UFO research community as further evidence that we are, in fact, being
visited by extraterrestrial aliens, even if their origin has not yet been
revealed.
In the context of the present paper, a careful survey
of the reported behavior of the alleged ufonauts argues exactly in the
opposite direction.
According to current UFO magazines and books, the number of reported and
documented abductions is now measured in multiples of 1,000. Such incidents
are characterized by what the witness reports as being transported into a
hollow, spherical or hemispherical space and being subjected to a medical
examination.
This is often (but not always) followed by the taking
of blood samples, various kinds of sexual interaction, and loss of time. The
entire episode is frequently wiped out of conscious memory and is only
retrievable under hypnosis.
At this writing over 600 abductees have been interrogated by UFO researchers,
sometimes assisted by clinical psychologists. Although nothing concrete seems
to have been learned from these case studies about the origin and purpose of
the visitors, those doing the investigations are vocal in their claim that
the abductions are further evidence of the ETH.
In order to examine this claim, let us assume that extraterrestrial
intelligence has indeed developed the ability and the desire to visit the
earth. It is a reasonable assumption to expect that such visitors would know
at least as much as we do in the fundamental scientific disciplines such as
physics and biology.
Few ufologists, in fact, argue against this assumption.
In particular, the visitors would presumably know as much about medical
techniques and procedures as our own practitioners. Today the average
American doctor can draw blood, collect sperm and ova or remove tissue
samples from his or her patients without leaving permanent scars or inducing
trauma.
The current state of molecular biology - a science
which is in its infancy on earth - would already permit that same doctor to
obtain unique genetic "fingerprint" information from such samples.
He could also fertilize the ova and obtain "test-tube" offspring,
and it is conceivable that cloning could duplicate the beings thus produced
ad
A team of scientists equipped with the commonly reported UFO technology would
be in an excellent position to take control of blood banks, sperm banks or
collections of embryos available at major research hospitals and research
centers without creating the massive disturbances described by abduction
researchers. They would be able to accomplish it while escaping detection.
Equipped with the state-of-the-art techniques of
current U.S. medicine, it would be conceivable that the entire human race
could, in time, be restarted from this pool of genetic material.
Even gene therapy and the creation of hybrid
species is well within our theoretical horizon, even if it has not
completely been reduced to practice. None of these accomplishments require
the procedural behavior of the "Alien Doctors" described by
abduction researchers. The means of permanently erasing the memory of the
victims through the use of appropriate drugs are also available in the
current pharmacopeia.
Whatever the supposed "Aliens" are doing, if
they actually perform what appear to be shockingly crude and cruel simulacra
of biological experiments on the bodies of their abductees, is unlikely to
represent a scientific mission relevant to the goals of extraterrestrial
visitors.
The answers may have to be sought in other directions.
Argument Four - History
The ETH was initially formulated at a time when the earliest sightings known
dated from World War II. It could be validly argued that this major conflict
was detected from space and that the observation of nuclear explosions on
earth precipitated the Aliens' decision to survey our planet, perhaps in an
effort to assess the human race as a potential threat to other intelligent
life-forms.
The mounting proliferation of evidence for similar phenomena not only before
1945 but during the 19 th century and indeed in
the remote past of our culture has become convincing, although some
ufologists, borrowing an argument from their skeptical opponents, are now
pleading that such data should simply be disregarded.
If it can be established that the phenomenon has indeed existed through-out
history, adapting only its superficial shape but not its underlying structure
to the expectations of the host culture, then we are unlikely to be dealing
with extraterrestrials doing a survey of the earth. Nor are we dealing with
advanced prototypes.
Again, a more sophisticated class of explanations than
both the ETH and the advanced technology hypothesis must be sought.
In previous works I have pointed out that aerial phenomena very similar to
our UFOs had been reported in the 9th century in the
form of vessels in the sky, as airships in the days of Jules Verne, as
ghost rockets in 1946 spacecraft in more recent times, as if they mimicked
human expectations. Everything works as if the UFO phenomenon remained
consistently one step ahead of human technology.
In the last 10 years, as molecular biology has become
more glamorous than electronics or even aerospace in our modern civilization,
it should not be surprising to find the "Aliens" per-forming
simulacra of genetic engineering interventions.
The supporters of the ETH may have fallen into the trap
of a first-level reading of the phenomenon's message.
Such historical considerations, combined with extensive research on mythology
and folklore have led European researchers like Meheust (1978, 1985)
and Evans (1986) to regard the entire UFO phenomenon as a
projection of the consciousness of the witnesses. They point out that and
legends, too, stay one step ahead of human scientific realizations.
This "Psycho-Sociological Hypothesis" has
aroused considerable opposition among U.S. ufologists and is now creating a
deep chasm between European and American ufology, with the former advocating
agree, symbolic reading of the discourse presented by the witnesses.
The abduction claims are especially interesting to the proponents of the
psycho-sociological theory:
It is difficult to find a culture on earth that does
not have an ancient tradition of little people that fly through the sky and
abduct humans (Vallee, 1969, 1988).
It is standard for them to take their victims into
spherical settings that are evenly illuminated and to subject them to various
ordeals such as operations on internal organs and "astral trips" to
unknown landscapes.
Sexual or genetic interaction is also a common theme in
this body of folklore.
Argument Five - Physical Considerations
As witnesses become less reluctant in the reporting of their experiences,
the notion that UFOs are "somebody else's spacecraft" (in the words
of Friedman) with the implication of a technology powered by advanced
propulsion systems becomes less tenable, and possibly less appealing
scientifically than other notions.
But the alternative explanations, notably the
psycho-sociological hypothesis, also find themselves severely challenged.
The phenomena to be explained include not only strange flying devices that
are described as physical craft by the witnesses but also objects and beings
that exhibit the ability to appear and disappear very suddenly, to change
their apparent shapes in continuous fashion and to merge with other physical
objects.
Such reports seem absurd in terms of ordinary physics
because they suggest a mastery of time and space that our own physical
research cannot duplicate today.
However, if these sightings can be con-firmed either by
direct observation, by photographic evidence or by the weight of statistics
they may represent an opportunity to test new concepts of physical reality at
a time when many theoreticians are grappling with the possible existence of N-dimensional universes, with N greater than 4.
New Hypotheses
In conclusion, it is useful to speculate about several hypotheses that go
beyond the earlier theories listed in Table 1.
These ideas do take into consideration, with various
degrees of success, the five objections we have re-viewed. These new
hypotheses should only be regarded as a means of stimulating discussion, not
as formal proposals (see Table 2).
One such line of speculation has been advanced by Devereux
(1982) who has spoken of UFOs as "Earth Lights," an unrecognized
physical, terrestrial phenomenon which impresses the consciousness of the
witnesses to take the form of a mental image, possibly a mythological figure.
Derr and Persinger have extended
Devereux' proposals.
In the mid-70's I proposed to approach the UFO
phenomenon as a control system, reserving judgment as to whether the control
would turn out to be human, alien or simply natural. Such control systems,
governing physical or social events, are all around us.
They can be found in the terrestrial, ecological and
economic balancing mechanisms that rule nature, some of which are well
understood by science.
This theory admits two interesting variants:
An Alien intelligence, possibly earth-based, could be
training us towards a new type of' behavior. It could represent the
"Visitor Phenomenon" of Strieber (1987) or some form of "supernature,"
possibly along the lines of a " Gaia"
hypothesis
Alternately, in a Jungian interpretation of the same
theme, the human collective unconscious could be projecting ahead of itself the
imagery which is necessary for our own long-term survival beyond the
unprecedented crises of the 20th century.
British researcher Randles has stressed that the
analysis of the discourse of abductees consistently reveals a breakpoint in
time, after which the percipient leaves normal reality behind.
On the "other side" of this boundary ordinary
space-time physics no longer seems to apply and the percipient moves as if
within a lucid dream (or indeed a lucid nightmare) until re-turned to the
normal world. Randles calls this phenomenon the "Oz Factor."
Building on this observation, one could theorize that
there exists a remarkable state of psychic functioning that alters the
percipient's vision of physical reality and also generates actual traces and
luminous phenomena, visible to other witnesses in their normal state.
Finally, we could hypothesize extraterrestrial travelers using radical
methods of space-time manipulation, notably the use of four-dimensional
wormholes for space and possibly even time travel.
On this subject, see Morris, Thorne, and Yurtsever
(1988). On multidimensional models, see Mallove (1988, p. 255).
Such travelers could perform many of the physical feats
ascribed to ufonauts and they could also manifest simultaneously
throughout what appears to us as different periods in our history. This
hypothesis represents an updating of the ETH where the
"extraterrestrials" can be from anywhere and anytime,
and could even originate from our own earth.
The arguments for a multidimensional approach to the
natural history of the UFO phenomenon have been developed by the author in
the book Dimensions (Vallee, 1988).
Conclusion
Exciting as an extraterrestrial visitation to earth would be, this paper has
pointed out that in the current state of our knowledge UFO phenomena are not
consistent with the common interpretation of this hypothesis.
Neither do the observed patterns support the theory
that all UFOs can be explained as combinations of natural effects, or as
psycho-sociological processes. Therefore it is proposed that future research
in this field could fruitfully explore alternative hypotheses, such as
those involving either natural or artificial control systems, earth lights or
wormhole travel.
The arguments raised here are not intended as a complete refutation of the
ETH or the natural phenomena hypothesis. Until the nature and origin of UFO
phenomena can be firmly established it will naturally be possible to
hypothesize that extraterrestrial factors, including undiscovered forms of
consciousness, are playing a role in its manifestations.
But any future theory should constructively address the
facts we have reviewed.
At a minimum, the idea of extraterrestrial intervention
should be updated to include current theoretical speculation about other
models of the physical universe.
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