UFO, Induction and Deduction.

Inductive vs. deductive reasoning

Unlike deductive arguments, inductive reasoning allows for the possibility that the conclusion is false, even if all of the premises are true. Instead of being valid or invalid, inductive arguments are either strong or weak, which describes how probable it is that the conclusion is true.

A classical example of an incorrect inductive argument was presented by John Vickers:

All of the swans we have seen are white.

Therefore, all swans are white.

Now, let us see what we will call the UFO inductive reasoning:

Most of the so called Unidentified Flying Objects ( UFO) are identified as natural phenomena and /or human made artifacts.

Some of the UFO however, remain not identified, consequently these Unidentified Flying Objects are extraterrestrial vehicles.

As we can see this inductive argument allows the possibility that the conclusion is false. That is why Inductive reasoning is also known as hypothesis construction. The conclusion is unreliable so at most we can talk about a hypothetical conclusion, but not a factual one.

David Hume, the Scottish philosopher; described the problems of inductive reasoning in his  An Enquiry concerning Human Understanding,  based on his epistemological framework. Here, "reason" refers only to deductive reasoning and "induction" refers to inductive reasoning.

You can change the world.

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: <in.chaos.we.trust@nyms.net>
Date: Sun, Mar 17, 2013 at 4:32 PM
Subject: You can change the world.
To: fso2604@gmail.com


In fact YOU can change things. Read again our post about the Butterfly event.
Small events, (particularly those who are unpredictable) will perhaps produce the butterfly effect that is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions, where a small change at one place in a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences to a later state.
So, truth is that you can change the world.
Think about this, because perhaps you will agree with us that this world deserves to be changed.
Fraternally
I.C.W.T
in.chaos.we.trust@nyms.net

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Fwd: Try some "Butterfly Effect" ..!

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: <in.chaos.we.trust@nyms.net>
Date: Fri, Mar 15, 2013 at 9:07 PM
Subject: Try some "Butterfly Effect" ..!
To: fso2604@gmail.com


In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions, where a small change at one place in a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences to a later state. The name of the effect, coined by Edward Lorenz, is derived from the theoretical example of a hurricane's formation being contingent on whether or not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks before.
Although the butterfly effect may appear to be an esoteric and unlikely behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill may roll into any of several valleys depending on, among other things, slight differences in initial position.
The butterfly effect is a common trope in fiction when presenting scenarios involving time travel and with hypotheses where one storyline diverges at the moment of a seemingly minor event resulting in two significantly different outcomes.
Snowball effect is a figurative term for a process that starts from an initial state of small significance and builds upon itself, becoming larger (graver, more serious), and also perhaps potentially dangerous or disastrous (a vicious circle, a "spiral of decline"), though it might be beneficial instead (a virtuous circle). This is a very common cliché in cartoons and modern theatrics and it is also used in Psychology.
The common analogy is with the rolling of a small ball of snow down a snow-covered hillside. As it rolls the ball will pick up more snow, gaining more mass and surface area, and picking up even more snow and momentum as it rolls along.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_effect

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How produce UFO sightings and other paranormal factoids.

The observer-expectancy effect (also called the experimenter-expectancy effect, expectancy bias, observer effect, or experimenter effect) is a form of reactivity in which a researcher's cognitive bias causes them to unconsciously influence the participants of an experiment. It is a significant threat to a study's internal validity, and is therefore typically controlled using a double-blind experimental design. An example of the observer-expectancy effect is demonstrated in music backmasking, in which hidden verbal messages are said to be audible when a recording is played backwards. Some people expect to hear hidden messages when reversing songs, and therefore hear the messages, but to others it sounds like nothing more than random sounds. Often when a song is played backwards, a listener will fail to notice the "hidden" lyrics until they are explicitly pointed out, after which they are obvious. Other prominent examples include facilitated communication and dowsing.

Chaos:More Food for Thought

http://hypertextbook.com/chaos/

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