Chaos theory is the study of nonlinear dynamics, in which
seemingly random events are actually predictable from simple deterministic
equations.
In other words,
the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable.
This behavior is known as deterministic chaos, or simply
chaos.
In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive
dependence on initial conditions, where a small change at one place in a
deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences to a later
state. The name of the effect, coined by Edward Lorenz, is derived from the
theoretical example of a hurricane's formation being contingent on whether or
not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks before.
Although the butterfly effect may appear to be an
esoteric and unlikely behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for
example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill may roll into any of several
valleys depending on, among other things, slight differences in initial
position.
A chain reaction is a sequence of reactions where a reactive
product or by-product causes additional reactions to take place. In a
chain reaction, positive feedback leads to a self-amplifying chain of events.
Chain reactions are one way in which systems which are in
thermodynamic non-equilibrium can release energy or increase entropy in order
to reach a state of higher entropy. For example, a system may not be able to
reach a lower energy state by releasing energy into the environment, because it
is hindered in some way from taking the path that will result in the energy
release. If a reaction results in a small energy release making way for more
energy releases in an expanding chain, then the system will typically
collapse explosively until much or all of the stored energy has been
released.
A metaphor for chain reactions is thus a snowball causing
larger snowfall until finally an avalanche results ("snowball
effect"). This is a result of stored gravitational potential energy
seeking a path of release over friction.
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES.
Can be roughly grouped into three types:
A positive, unexpected benefit (usually referred to as
luck, serendipity or a windfall).
A negative, unexpected detriment occurring in addition to
the desired effect of the policy (e.g., while irrigation schemes provide people
with water for agriculture, they can increase waterborne diseases that have
devastating health effects, such as schistosomiasis).
A perverse effect contrary to what was originally
intended (when an intended solution makes a problem worse), such as when a
policy has a perverse incentive that causes actions opposite to what was
intended.
Possible causes of unintended consequences include the
world's inherent complexity (parts of a system responding to changes in the
environment), perverse incentives, human stupidity, self-deception, failure to
account for human nature or other cognitive or emotional biases.
As a sub-component of complexity (in the scientific
sense), the chaotic nature of the universe—and especially its quality of having
small, apparently insignificant changes with far-reaching effects (e.g., the
butterfly effect)—applies.
Robert K. Merton listed five possible causes of
unanticipated consequences
Ignorance (It is impossible to anticipate everything,
thereby leading to incomplete analysis)
Error (Incorrect analysis of the problem or following
habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation)
Immediate interest, which may override long-term
interests
Basic values may require or prohibit certain actions even
if the long-term result might be unfavorable (these long-term consequences may
eventually cause changes in basic values)
Self-defeating prophecy (Fear of some
consequence drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the
non-occurrence of the problem is not anticipated.)
